Two Points for Honesty

Too many days lately I just don't want to even get out of bed. When I finally do, I lack all motivation to actually accomplish anything. It's all seemed so pointless and requiring too much effort with almost no payout. No one's interested in reading what I have to say. Freelance work seems to be drying up even before I get to it. I'm bringing in almost nothing; my monetary contributions barely cover half of a single bill.

It's been over a year since I had a steady paying job. And that was a contract position, so I didn't really bring in any money. I made just over $2000 in six weeks as a campaign manager for an underfunded congressional bid. Before that I waited tables for six months to help pay for the wedding, and before that I made $12 an hour as an administrative supervisor. That was my last real job, and that was done in December of 2009. It's understandable to see how a person could grow a bit demoralized.

Things don't seem to be getting easier, either. With over 9% declared unemployment, I'm in good company. And those numbers are understated. For instance, I don't count. I'm getting freelance work, so I'm self-employed. The PhD serving you beers doesn't count either; she has a paycheck of $0 every two weeks as taxes are taken out of her measly $3/hr salary. The stay at home mom and the housewife don't count, because they chose to take themselves out of the job market and settle into home life. The employment population ratio has dropped 5% in the past three years down to 58%. That means 5% less of the population able to work is actually currently employed.

It's hard. Everyone's struggling. Too many of us look at each paycheck and almost every cent of it has already been allocated to paying bills, paying for the necessities, getting by. There's little to nothing to save, to get ahead, to pay down debt and plan for the future. Forget the future. Let's just make it through the end of the year.

And we try. We take every little extra job that comes along, no matter how demoralizing it is to shill for horrible products or advise others about the next great ideas in entrepreneurship when we can barely get a job or afford those same awful products ourselves. It's something, right? Even then, after staying up late finishing those articles that need to be done RIGHT NOW, after cleaning the house, scrubbing the bathroom, bidding on seven new projects, applying to ten new jobs, exercised and eaten right, writing for my own novel, it still feels like I've accomplished nothing. I'm just treading water, because nothing is bringing in any money or moving me forward.

It's hard. To stay motivated. To get through searching for the next job. To get rejection after rejection no matter how many projects I bid on. To have resumes still go unremarked upon. To be underbid for that editing job by someone who barely speaks English but had the right price. To bleach the bathroom a few times each week but still have mold come back because the apartment was built shoddily. To not lose any weight despite cutting back on portion sizes and processed or fast food. To find that new chapter still doesn't feel right after rewriting it three times. To feel like I'm getting nowhere.

Like I told my wonderful husband today when I just couldn't bring myself to get out of bed: I'm torn between screaming at the top of my lungs in frustration or crying into a pillow in despair. How do I move past this? I keep plugging away, keep logging the hours, and writing the words, but dammit if this isn't hard.

Follow Up to Obama's Job Speech

After my initial impressions of Obama's speech (overall positive on the speech itself, doubtful on the follow through, and suspicious of motives), I've spent the last few days reading through analyses and criticisms of the speech and Obama's plan moving forward. I have to say I think I'm with the critics. This was a successful campaign speech and nothing more.

Obama sounded emphatic, forceful, serious, and like a man who gets things done. He appealed to his strongest bases (Dems, education, public works unions), and reached out to a few swings (veterans, the unemployed, independents). But did the speech really mean anything beyond a stump speech?

One editorial I read today summed it up pretty well. Obama knew full well that this jobs bill would never pass. First of all, they're replays of the exact things that were in the first handful of stimulus bills: infrastructure, education, unemployment checks. We still have ridiculously high unemployment, the infrastructure projects we already "paid for" have not even begun, and education bureaucrats just pocketed the money and fired our teachers anyway. And those bills barely passed when we had a DEMOCRAT Congress. With a Republican Congress, they'll never get through.

And his explanation of "it will be paid for"? To increase the tax-cutting Congress is already failing to do? It's nonsense and requires tax increases that Obama knows Republicans will never agree to, and again are something he couldn't get the Democrats to agree to when they had control of the Congress.

Obama's not stupid. He knew all of this when he gave the speech. His exhortations of "pass this jobs bill right away" were appeals to the public at large, begging them to see that "At least I'm trying!" Now he can point the finger at Congress when unemployment fails to go down or, gods forbid, rises again. It's not his fault that things are bad; after all, he suggested this completely reasonable, non-partisan plan that would surely save us all.

The plan is to set up a completely unprovable counterfactual. In a year, he can say "If my plan had passed, we would be out of this dismal situation by now" in the same way his administration says of the former stimulus plan "If we hadn't passed it, we'd be even worse off by now." Counterfactuals are completely unverifiable but incredibly useful political tools. You use failed expectations of the past and present and future to gain political ground by insisting that even the worst policy decisions did some good or prevented some evil, even without evidence. It's just as easy for the other side to say the opposite: "by passing the former stimulus, Obama made the situation worse," or "We saved the country from even higher unemployment and deficits because we refused to pass Obama's jobs bill."

People don't seem to be falling for it, and the bill is unlikely to be passed at all.

I have to run now, but I might write later on the mentality that says "We have to do SOMETHING" when things are bad, even if that something often makes things worse. Or I might not. Depends on what I feel like writing later. :)

Obama's Job Speech

(I've been up all night writing for work. I figured since it's about 5:30am and I'm still up, I might as well write something for me.)

Obama gave a jobs speech tonight in front of the joint houses of Congress today. I'm listening to it for the first time. Here are my reactions in real time (I'll be pausing the youtube video so I can type out responses and not lose too much of the speech): This should be fun.

0:30 "What will this speech mean for the President? What will it mean for Congress?" --Does that strike anyone else as incredibly arrogant? He's referencing the importance of his own speech. One, I might point out, that he had to schedule around both a debate that he tried to pre-empt and an important football game. But it's his speech that is important? I'd say the economic crisis is the important thing here, not the speech about it.

0:45 "Millions of Americans watching right now don't care about politics." --Okay, good. We're kind of sick about the politics of it. :)

1-3:00 Much of nothing. Americans are frustrated, aren't getting by on their hard work anymore, we've got to do something, etc.

3:05 Steps to take: Ok, I'm listening.

3:10 "I'm sending a bill that you should pass right away."-- Oh, I always get nervous when a bill has to be passed immediately. When actions HAVE to happen right away, a bunch of bad stuff gets packed into the legislation that everyone admits was probably bad later down the line. After all, it's how we got the Patriot Act, the Wall Street Bailout, the TARP bill, the Stimulus Bill, and the Health Care Act.

3:15 "There should be nothing controversial about this piece of legislation." -- Aw, come on. He's baiting the Republicans with that one.

3:33 "Everything in this bill will be paid for. Everything." -- Yup, I've definitely heard that one before. TARP, bailout bill, Medicare Part D (by the way, all Bush bills) ... Have we gotten half of the returns on those "investments"? He sounds defensive about it.

3:55 Okay, jobs for construction workers, teachers, veterans, and long-term unemployed. I'm calling it: Infrastructure, education spending, new veterans bill, and extension of unemployed benefits. Only problem is, most of the infrastructure spending we've initiated in the past 2 years have resulted in almost no jobs created, education spending has led to large amounts of teachers being let go while administrators and bureaucrats take the money, and unemployment benefits are not "jobs". Trust me, the unemployed want to WORK!

4:10 "cut payroll taxes in half for every working American and every small business." --But I thought this would pay for itself? We're already having revenue issues. I'm willing to pay taxes on my income, just so long as I actually have some.

4:30 "Pass this jobs plan right away." --Again, I'm nervous about that talk. Can we make sure we know what's actually in the bill before we pass it? Or do we have to pass it to know what's in it again? That didn't work so well last time and ended up with many waivers for people who couldn't meet the requirements of the mystery legislation.

5:00 "Pass this jobs bill. Pass this jobs bill." --Ok. Ok. What is in it??

5:05 "Small businesses get a tax cut if they hire new workers or raise workers' wages." But big businesses don't? That seems really difficult to get away with, not to mention, very likely unconstitutional.

5:15 "Payroll taxes cut in half." --Wow. Um, is that feasible to even fund this?

5:40 "You should pass it right away." --STOP!

6:00 Infrastructure spending! I called it. And he invoked the black cloud of China to do it. Impressive.

7:00 Renovating schools. Do it for the kids.

8:00 "To make sure the money is properly spent..." Ok, how are we going to avoid the waste that has infected most of the other infrastructure spending of the past, um, forever?

8:10 So no earmarks, boondoggles, red tape or bridges to nowhere. Not really much of a solution to waste in spending, but hey, recognizing the problem is at least a good step!

8:45 He's all about the "It wasn't my idea. Dems and Repubs suggested it. I'm just the bridge builder here, folks." That could be really effective. But it makes it seem like he's giving this speech directly to the politicians in the chamber. It's not so effective at reaching out to the American people. I feel like I'm listening in on a business presentation or investors meeting.

9:00 "You should pass it right away." --Really getting creeped out by that.

9:15 Teachers back to work. Two for me!

10:00 Hiring veterans. THREE! Wait, what about the teachers? How are we putting htem back? Ooh, the veterans talk got the Republicans standing. Go troops!

10:55 $4,000 tax credit for companies that hire someone who has been unemployed for more than six months. Will that be enough to get companies to hire the long term unemployed? There's already such a stigma on us, and hiring the long term unemployed poses so much risk, it may not be enough.

11:20 Invoked the Georgia Works program which gets temporary work for the unemployed so they can develop their skills. Unfortunately, few of those jobs have transitioned into full time work or provide a real pay check. These workers just get their unemployment checks and work part time; employers get free labor for odd jobs and don't have any obligations to the unemployed.

11:30 Another year of unemployment insurance.

11:50 "pass it again--right away." .....

12:00 $1500 tax cut for middle class Americans. Wait. This is Bush's tax cuts extended again. I thought that was the worst economic decision in several decades? And this would be Obama's second or third time extending them. Someone needs to call him on this.

12:35 AHAHAHA! He invoked the "No New Taxes" pledge a bunch of the Tea Partiers took before taking office. Awesome mockery right there. Most of those pledges are so stupid. I urged my candidate (whose campaign I managed) to ignore all of those. He ignored all but this one. Ah well, close enough.

12:45 "Pass this bill right away." I should have made a drinking game out of this. Although, that might be seen really badly by some seeing as it is about 6 in the morning now. :)

13:20 Will not add to the deficit and here's how: Let's hear it...

13:30 He invokes the agreement passed in July to cut government spending by over $1 trillion over the next ten years .... Okay. Stop. That bill did not cut spending. It agreed not to increase spending by its usual increments to keep up with inflation. There were almost NO cuts made to planned spending. Some departments had their budgets reallocated, but there were no real cuts. That better not be it...

13:35 Another $1.5 trillion in savings by Christmas. --And how many of those have been agreed on?

13:45 Increase that amount so that it covers the cost of this new bill. --So you have no idea. You're just going to promise to make someone else find some way of paying for it while you increase spending? You want to cut spending while finding new ways to spend? Does not compute.

13:50 Huh. He says he's going to introduce a new deficit plan in two weeks.

14:05 "This approach is basically the one I've been advocating for months." I need Chris from Family Guy here. "Whhuuuuu-uuuttt??"

14:22 Huge moment here. He just put Medicare and Medicaid on the table!! Oh it is on.

14:30 Adjust tax code to make wealth Americans pay more. -- Wouldn't mind that. How about eliminating some of the loopholes? :)

15:20 Um, so health care costs are spiraling out of control ... but we need to cover more health care costs? Again, does not compute.

16:00 Eliminate tax breaks and loopholes for the rich. Woot! It's like he can hear me. From twelve hours in the past ...

16-17:00 Okay, this Obama character. He's growing on me.

19:20 Making America more hospitable for business. Sounds good to me. How so? Eliminating some regulations? :)

20:10 You'll actually paid for the work you do for the government. --Shouldn't that be a bare minumum?

20:20 Cutting red tape. Woot!

20:30 Helping homeowners and refinancing mortgages. -- Whoa there. Isn't that how we got our housing bubble in the first place? By artificially boosting home prices? How about something to encourage lending instead of directly affecting home prices?

21:15 Updated patent process. Woot!

21:30 Free trade agreements?? Who are you and what did you do with Obama?? I'm so confused.

22:30 Oh no. He just invoked his Jobs Council. That's the one where Jeffrey Immelt is the Chair. Yeah, Immelt of General Electric. Whose company has relocated several of its manufacturing companies to China. And Obama just said he wants to have the next generation of manufacturing "not in China, but here in the United States of America." The dissonance. It hurts.

23:30 We're number one. We're number one.

23:45 Here's where he calls out the Republicans. And they respond childishly. Ugh.

24:15 And wow. He just conceded that a lot of what the Republicans have been arguing for--cutting unnecessary spending and eliminating unnecessary burdens on businesses--are correct. And he's going to work with them to fix that. I hope those aren't just words.

24:30 Already found over 500 reforms and regulations to eliminate. Color me impressed.

25:00 Going to preserve the protections that Americans still need. Fair enough.

25:30 He goes on to list a whole bunch of regulations that I don't think anyone would argue are probably necessary. No fair going to the straw men. You were doing so well.

25:38 Collective bargaining rights not on the table. And Joe Biden goes nuts. I think he almost gave himself whiplash back there.

26:20 His characterization of the Republican position: "We dismantle government, refund everybody's money, and let everyone write their own rules, and tell everyone they're on their own. That's not who we are." To be fair, that is almost the Tea Party's position, or at least the one they give lip service to. It's funny. I'm a libertarian with some seriously researched and principled reasons behind my stances. But I disagree with the anarchist stance that is being taken by the Tea Party. (Of course, they're not really anarchists. They're just reactionary. Give them power, let them take the reins, and they're just as autocratic as the next.) I'm for some social safety nets, and even some progressive taxation. ... This is another rant. Back to the speech.

26:50 Communitarian invocation followed by Lincoln invocation.

27-28:30 Government has done a lot of great things.

28:30 "Where would we be if Congress had decided not to pass Social Security or Medicare because of some rigid idea about what government could or could not do?" -- You mean like the Constitution? Damn those restrictions. Of course, there's a way around that with an amendment, which had to happen to let those things even be legal. But details. Bah!

29-30:30 Reiteration of what's been said.

30:30 Next election 14 months away. The American people don't have the luxury of waiting 14 months for us to do something. -- Great rhetoric there. Very nice job by his speech writers.

31-32:00 Invoke Kennedy, wrap it up, and God Bless America.

Overall Impressions: Pretty good speech. I'm usually not a fan of his speeches, but he seems to have hedged a lot of his positions and conceded a lot of ideas about government spending. I'm actually pretty impressed. I'm not completely convinced by it all, but I'm curious about what's REALLY in that jobs bill. I'm looking forward to see how it works out.